Write the survivor table
List every living player, claimed role, confirmed alignment and available lethal/control action. In a six-player day, one elimination and one night kill can turn a 4–2 majority into 2–2 parity. You need the exact next board, not a vague feeling that Town is “ahead.”
Identify forced actions
A verified ability can change the available lines: a Jailor may stop an ordinary Mafia kill by detaining the relevant killer, protection may preserve a deciding vote, or a Mayor reveal may supply enough nomination power. Check the target’s exceptions and the other living powers before calling any line forced. Detaining Serial Killer or Pestilence is not equivalent to detaining a lone Mafioso.
Value information by whether another day exists
An Investigator check is valuable only if someone survives to use the result. If the wrong vote ends the game tonight, choose the line that preserves a next day rather than the line that produces the most interesting information.
Watch for kingmaker neutrals
Survivor, Pirate and other independent roles may decide which faction reaches its win condition. Their incentives are not Town loyalty. Model what each neutral needs, what they fear, and whether promising cooperation actually changes their safest action.
Final-three discipline
In a three-player situation, ask which pair can coexist with the known kills and claims. Reconstruct the previous night before discussing tone. The last liar often survives by getting two Town players to debate personality instead of the only mechanical inconsistency left.
Parity example
| Day decision | After the trial | After one unprevented Town death |
|---|---|---|
| Hang a Town player | 3 Town / 2 Mafia | 2 Town / 2 Mafia: Town cannot force a nomination alone |
| Hang a Mafia player | 4 Town / 1 Mafia | 3 Town / 1 Mafia: Town still has nomination power |
| No hanging | 4 Town / 2 Mafia | 3 Town / 2 Mafia: another day remains under these assumptions |
This is an arithmetic example, not a promise that passing is best. A Mayor, independent killer, conversion, protection, guilt death or additional attack changes the calculation. Write those effects separately before choosing a line.
Common mistakes
- Voting before counting the post-night survivor total.
- Choosing an information action when there will be no next day to use it.
- Assuming a neutral player shares Town’s objective.
- Ignoring a forced control line because a behavioral read feels stronger.
